Recently while having lunch with a couple of SC.com writers we got into a discussion of fast risers or guys whose draft stock drops and the reasons for this occuring. Instead of taking a traditional view and discussing measurements, workouts, draft camps and the like I went on a long tangent about how this is a phenomenon which doesn't really exist. When there is only one draft how can someone's stock truly rise or fall? Exactly whose draft are these guys moving around in? My general feeling has been for a while that where a team drafts a player is where he's drafted and while there's a ton of speculation about where a guy should go and there's a ton of criticism when someone is drafted ahead of where 'draft experts' had them projected none of the rest of these projections matter.
In doing a bit of reading today I came across an interesting study discussing this exact topic. It covers the last 5 years of the draft and talks a bit about how players who have moved from early projected mock drafts have fared. While reading the study I went to the link inside and visited our friends at Celticsblog where Jeff gives a pretty nice review of what the study means with commentary surrounding how this effects the Celtics drafts over the years. I spend all day figuring numbers and I tried to make sense of what I was reading but tonight is not the night where I can make reason out of much more than the team that scores more wins, but its still a worthwhile look.
Would we be able to figure out from the historical data which players have a solid chance of falling? If we are able figure out whose stock changed from the earlier mock drafts which players have the best chance of 'falling' and still being very quality players? Conversely is it possible to figure out which players who 'rise' have the best chance of proving thier worth?
Could be that its just a fun read for me but something that no one else is really interested in. On a side note, if Tyrus Thomas is available at 10 should the Sonics take him? Since in the last 3 months he's had the fun of 'rising' and if available at that point 'falling' in the same draft.