Sonics Fans Could Influence Seattle's Primary Election

Last Thursday, KING5 released results from the Survey USA poll on the Seattle race for mayor. This is the third poll KING5 has had conducted that shows the leading candidate is "Undecided". The people leading in the poll are Ed Murray and Mike McGinn in a statistical tie, followed by Peter "arena hater" Steinbrueck.

Ed Murray's numbers have moved up in the polls.

Mike McGinn's numbers have remained flat in the polls.

Peter Steinbrueck's numbers have dropped.

The SurveyUSA poll of 501 likely Seattle voters finds:

Ed Murray: 22 percent

Mike McGinn: 21 percent

Peter Steinbrueck: 14 percent

Bruce Harrell: 11 percent

Charlie Staadecker: 3 percent

Mary Martin: 2 percent

Joey Gray: 1 percent

Kate Martin 1 percent

Doug McQuaid: 1 percent

Twenty-five [25] percent of likely voters remain undecided.

The margin of error is ± 4.5 percent.

You can sift through the full survey, by Survey USA, right here.

Something people should be aware of is that cell phone were under sampled, just 12%.

Older voters with landlines are more likely to both get represented in polls, and are more consistent voters. Unfortunately for polling, predicting the turnout of younger cellphone users is difficult to do (PEW Research).

2009 Primary Results

In 2009 Mayor Greg Nickels lost in the primary by 2152 votes. Washington state uses a top two primary that narrows down the candidates for the November election. Nickels was third in a pretty tight race.

13 months earlier Greg Nickels agreed to let Clay Bennett to take my Sonics to Oklahoma City (might as well have been Mars). Did Nickels lose 2152 votes because of that terrible, terrible thing?

I'll say yes, and I can't prove it.

In 2009, there was a 38% turnout of registered voters in the primary, 146568 cast ballots.

Mike McGinn had 39097 votes (27.71%)

Joe Mallahan had 37933 votes (26.88%)

Greg Nickels had 35781 votes (25.36%)

(King County Elections)

This year King County Elections is predicting a 35% turnout.

In 2013, the top five candidates this year are:

Undecided

Ed Murray

Mike McGinn

Bruce Harrell

Peter Steinbrueck.

It is possible for Sonics fans, and NHL hockey fans, to determine the outcome of the Seattle mayoral primary.

If you vote then McGinn and Murray make it through the primary, with Steinbrueck in third. Steinbrueck has a better chance of getting through the primary if you don't vote. It's just that simple.

Ballots started arriving in mailboxes on July 18th. The election is on August 6th.

If you are a voter in Seattle, decide to vote, it's up to you.