How Are Our Predictions Shaping Up?

It was just over a month ago that we here at Sonics Rising made our pre-season predictions. Well, believe it or not, we are about 20 games into the season, which means it's time for our quarter-season checkup. How are we doing so far? Let's find out.

Most Valuable Player
Staff	Player	PPG	RPG	ASG	SPG	BPG	PIE
Mike Baker	LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers	24.9	5.8	7.4	1.3	0.6	16.2
Taylor Bartle
Dontae Delgado
Chris Meirose
Kevin Nesgoda
Mitch Northam
Paul Rogers
Steve Stearns
Matt Tucker
Mile DeCaro

Before the season started, LeBron was our unanimous pick for MVP. Twenty games in, however, the choice isn't so clear. While he is still averaging nearly 25 points per game, it's actually his lowest since his rookie season. His field goal shooting percentage is down, as are his rebounds and steals. His assist numbers are up, but so are his turnovers. Worst of all, LeBron appears to take plays off on defense, and his leadership is already being brought into question. Despite his Cavs winning four in a row and LeBron winning eastern conference player of the week twice, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, or Marc Gasol would be better candidates right now.

Defensive Player of the Year
Staff	Player	SPG	BPG	RPG	Def Rtg
Mike Baker	Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers	2.1	0.4	4.0	105.2
Taylor Bartle	Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans	2.3	3.1	11.3	103.1
Dontae Delgado
Chris Meirose
Kevin Nesgoda
Matt Tucker
Mitch Northam	DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers	1.0	2.4	11.6	101.7
Paul Rogers
Steve Stearns
Miles DeCaro	Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls	0.7	1.6	9.9	99.5

The majority of us voted for the Pelicans' Anthony Davis and right now that seems like a pretty strong bet. Davis leads the league in blocks and is fourth in steals. While he has a higher defensive rating than others (lower is better), that is mostly a product of his team's system. Surprisingly no one voted for Dwight Howard, who is third in the league in blocks (2.3). Another name that should be mentioned is Roy Hibbert, who is second in the league in blocks (2.8), and is holding opponents to a paltry 38.5% at the rim.

Sixth Man of the Year
Staff	Player	Min	PPG	RPG	SPG	BPG	PIE
Mike Baker	Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers	27.8	17.7	1.8	1.1	0.1	13.4
Kevin Nesgoda
Matt Tucker
Taylor Bartle	Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix Suns	23.6	15.5	2.4	0.8	0.1	15.4
Dontae Delgado
Steve Stearns
Chris Meirose	Spencer Hawes, Los Angeles Clippers	17.8	6.8	4.8	0.2	0.8	11.1
Paul Rogers
Mitch Northam	Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls	29.0	12.4	5.8	0.8	1.1	10.7
Miles DeCaro

While Crawford is leading the way in points per game, I still think IT is the front-runner for this award at this point. He is averaging more rebounds and assists, in less minutes, and is having a greater overall impact (PIE, or "Player Impact Estimate") on his team's success. One surprise candidate is Toronto's Lou Williams, who is averaging 14.2 points on 45% shooting with a PIE of 15.4, equal to that of Thomas. I would probably put him second right now, with Crawford a close third.

Rookie of the Year
Staff	Player	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	PIE
Mike Baker	Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks	12.4	6.2	1.7	1.4	0.3	10.8
Taylor Bartle
Dontae Delgado
Chris Meirose
Paul Rogers
Steve Stearns
Matt Tucker
Kevin Nesgoda	Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves	11.8	3.6	1.1	1.1	0.4	-0.9
Mitch Northam	Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic	6.6	3.5	5.0	1.4	0.2	8.1
Miles DeCaro	Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-24.2

At the beginning of the season, it looked like Mitch was going to be a prophet. Payton became only the third player in NBA history to have seven or more assists in the first four games of his career. While Payton still leads all rookies in assists, the number has dropped down to five, and he leads all rookies in turnovers (2.4). Jabari Parker leads all rookies in scoring, is third in steals, second in rebounds, and third in lowest turnovers. He also fouls less than any other rookie (1.4). We never really got to see Miles's pick of Julius Randle before he broke his leg  in his first game. The sleeper picks for ROY? Brooklyn's Bojan Bogdanovic, who is fourth in scoring (9.6), shooting 43% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc, or Philly's K.J. McDaniels, who is third in scoring (10.2) and is tied with his teammate Nerlens Noel for most blocks per game at 1.3.

Most Improved Player
Staff	Player	PPG	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	PIE
Mike Baker	Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks	2013/14 Stats
		16.5	2.6	6.7	1.1	0.2	11.8
		2014/15 Stats
		17.4	2.1	7.3	1.3	0.5	12.6
Taylor Bartle	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks	2013/14 Stats
Kevin Nesgoda		6.8	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.8	7.3
Mitch Northam		2014/15 Stats
Paul Rogers		12.0	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.5	11.6
Matt Tucker
Dontae Delgado	Lance Stephenson, Charlotte Hornets	2013/14 Stats
		13.8	7.2	4.6	0.7	0.1	12.7
		2014/15 Stats
		9.6	7.7	5.4	0.8	0.2	9.5
Chris Meirose	Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets	2013/14 Stats
		-	-	-	-	-	-
Steve Stearns		2014/15 Stats
		7.4	3.3	1.1	0.6	0.3	11.0
Miles DeCaro	Tony Snell, Chicago Bulls	2013/14 Stats
		4.5	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.2	5.8
		2014/15 Stats
		2.6	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	4.3

Chris and Steve though that Gallinari should win just by stepping back on the court after missing the entire 2013/14 season with a knee injury. Gallo's stats have been less than impressive so far, however, and it's doubtful he gets any votes. Lace Stephenson has not impressed in Charlotte as much as many people expected him to. While Antetokounmpo and Teague seem like strong votes, if I had to re-vote at this point, I would select Jimmy Butler from the Bulls. Butler is averaging a career-high 22 points per game and has a PIE of 14.1, up almost five whole points from last season.

Coach of the Year
Staff	Coach	Record	PPG	OPPG	Net Rtg	PIE
Mike Baker	David Blatt, Cleveland Cavaliers	9-7	103.8	99.9	2.5	51.4
Dontae Delgado
Taylor Bartle	Steve Clifford, Charlotte Hornets	4-14	93.6	101.1	-8.4	45.8
Chris Meirose	Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls	11-7	102.7	100.2	3.1	52.6
Kevin Nesgoda
Steve Stearns
Matt Tucker
Mitch Northam	Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks	14-5	110.3	101.6	10.7	56.5
Miles DeCaro
Paul Rogers	Doc Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers	12-5	105.1	99.2	6.6	53.6

Cleveland and Charlotte have both been disappointing early in the season, making Mike's, Dontae's, and my own picks look bad at this point. While the Bulls have been their usual sturdy selves, Derrick Rose is seemingly playing timid and injuries have hurt them. Have they done enough to earn Tom Thibodeau Coach of the Year? Right now, I'd say no. The Grizzlies' Dave Joerger and former Sonics assistant Dwane Casey were named Coaches of the Month for November. Two other major candidates are big surprises; Steve Kerr and Jason Kidd. Kerr has the Warriors playing even better than last year in his first season, and Kidd has the young Bucks playing way above expectations.