For 84 games last year everything was going according to the script for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They won 60 games, had the number one seed in the Western Conference and were on track to have another meeting in the Finals with LeBron James and the Miami Heat.
Then Patrick Beverly happened. Russell Westbrook went down, would not return for the playoffs and Kevin Durant, proving he was human, could not beat the Memphis Grizzlies all by himself.
Roll the calendar forward to this season and Westbrook won't be starting the season with the team, needing knee surgery once again. For at least the first few weeks of the season the Thunder are going to have to primarily rely on Durant to provide the scoring load and hope one or two of the young guys can step up to provide some support.
Head Coach: Scott Brooks is back to lead the team on the bench. Hopefully his play calling and offense has developed in the offseason.
One of the big questions on Brooks has always been his offense or lack there of, especially in big game, high intensity moments. His saviors in Kevin Durant and on the special occasion Russell Westbrook have prevented Brooks from being put into unemployment line.
My overall impression of Brooks as a coach isn't very good. His schemes seem to be more street ball based, allowing the Thunder to play organic basketball. Which is good in theory, but there is never a go to move that can get them a basket outside of a turnover. That's not a play, just poor execution by the other team.
At the end of the game it's going to be a Durant isolation play. Rarely is there any variation and rarely is there any imagination. The only reason this works is because it's Kevin Durant.
Rex Kalamian, Mark Bryan, Brian Keefe, Robert Pack and Mike Terpstra will be filling out Brooks' staff this season.
Last Season's Record: 60-22
Player Losses: Kevin Martin was in a sign in trade with Minnesota once it became clear that he would not return to OKC. Ronnie Brewer left in free agency and DeAndre Liggins was waived because he is a despicable human being.
Player Additions: The Thunder drafted Steven Adams and Andre Roberson in the first round of the 2013 draft. During free agency they added Ryan Gomes, Diante Garrett, Rodney McGruder and the only man still alive from when James Naismith invented the game of basketball, Derek Fisher.
Best Player: Kevin Durant. Period. End of discussion.
Worst Player: Daniel Orton and it's not even close. Not quite sure how he's still in the league.
Player due to breakthrough: Last year it was Reggie Jackson, this year it's going to be Jeremy Lamb and only because he has to be. Lamb has the skills to be a very, slightly above average player off the bench and to keep minutes low on Durant and company he has to be a big scorer off the bench.
The Starters: Jackson will start at point guard while Westbrook recovers from knee surgery, Thabo Sefolosha is going to be back as the starting two guard, Durant has the lockdown on small forward until he retires, Serge Ibaka is at power forward and the incomparable Kendrick Perkins will be back at center.
The Bench: Nick Collison is probably going to be the only consistent contributor off the bench for the Thunder this season. You know exactly what you are going to get from him night in and night out; hustle, defense and rebounding. Reggie Jackson will be a solid backup once Westbrook comes back, but that leaves Derek Fisher as the primary backup point guard.
Lamb, Ryan Gomes, Perry Jones, Hasheem Thabeet, Andre Roberson and Steven Adams are all going to be relied on to contribute in some fashion. All but Gomes have never contributed on an NBA level before and this is where the Thunder's title hopes lie. They need to develop quickly or Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka are all going to have to play 45 minutes a night to give them a shot at winning.
Random Seattle Connection: Well... They used to be here. They used to be the Supersonics.
Best Case Scenario for the Season: The bench steps up big time, keeping the starters fresh and able to carry the Thunder to another number one seed, while Brooks learned to be inventive on inbounds plays at the end of games to keep teams off balance. The Thunder remain healthy and win a championship.
Worst Case Scenario for the Season: Westbrook has knee issues throughout the year and is never 100%, but insists on playing, making himself worse. The bench never comes together and Kevin Durant sets a season record for most minutes played in a season. Because of the bench the Thunder regress and finish fifth in the West.
Most Likely Scenario for the Season: It will be a mixture of best case and worst case scenarios. I can see the Thunder being healthy all year again (they seem to have a magical training staff), Durant once again being in talks for MVP and competing for another scoring title. The bench, however, doesn't come together to provide enough support for the starters, Durant sets a personal best for minutes played in a season.
With the West being as tight as it is, every game is going to count and the Thunder will not be able to rest starters toward the end of the season as they jockey for playoff positioning. They'll finish the season on fumes between the second and fourth seed, prime for a first round upset, depending on their opponent.
Will Sam Presti be able to fortify the bench by the trade deadline? That is going to be the main talking point for OKC right around Christmas to the trade deadline.
Projection: 56-26
Check out the preview from our brothers (and sister) at Welcome to Loud City.
Comments
Kendrick Perkins was also in running for worst player
He’s stealing money from the team at this point.
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.09.13 10:12am
oh no you dint!
j/k
it’s all good
I'm not bitter.
No really.
By Speedcat on 10.09.13 10:37am
everyone gets a dip in the pool
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.09.13 10:43am
disbelief!
@oracle gif me disbelief
By Speedcat on 10.09.13 11:23am
By The GIF Oracle on 10.09.13 11:23am
@oracle
gif me “what is with all these gifs?”
By Paul Rogers on 10.09.13 12:00pm
Serge Ibaka
Will be interesting to see if he figured out one post move over the summer.
They need him to be able to anchor down on the block versus roaming the perimeter and taking 20 footers and mess up the spacing.
By john_s on 10.09.13 10:50am
here's my most likely scenario for the year
Westbrook returns in early December and doesn’t hit his stride until February. Durant is wiped about mentally and physically just after Christmas and there will be drama between Brooks, Westbrook, and maybe Ibaka. They’ll make it to the conference finals and lose in 5 games and Brooks may lose his job over play calling and clock management in the post season.
By Catherine Boland on 10.09.13 11:21am
Brooks actually has to call a play first.
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.09.13 11:42am
I can't see them making the WCF
if everything goes as poorly in the beginning as you stated.
By Eric E on 10.09.13 5:18pm
I think their talent will get them to the WCF, they don't have what it takes to win it though
By Catherine Boland on 10.09.13 6:34pm
OKC loses to Houston in playoffs
RW can’t outplay Harden
Durant, while still the best player on the court, can’t carry the team on his own.
Presti’s karma comes back to bite him.
By Fotiou C.K. on 10.09.13 11:23am
is it weird that...
…it’s weirder for me to read the Sactown preview than to read the OKC preview? That seems pretty weird. Anyone feel me on that?
By Paul Rogers on 10.09.13 12:01pm
Sacramento wound is fresher
and one of the guys from the OKC (Zeb) is picking me up at the airport and letting me sleep on his couch when I go there in March!
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.09.13 12:30pm
See, for me...
…Sacramento isn’t a wound. It’s an annoyance. It was a PITA. But OKC…that’s where the pain lies.
By MrCLM on 10.09.13 4:52pm
Agreed
Sacramento isn’t a wound, it was a bad dream I had for a couple days that I forgot about.
okc is a deep wound that carries a host of emotions. The word Sacramento is just a city. The word okc gets my heart beating and tenses my chest. There’s real anger, deep down, and sadness about okc.
I can’t possibly compare the 2, not even close.
By Eric E on 10.09.13 5:22pm
I hate those faux-backs
I hate their whole set. I hate their whole existence. But I especially hate those faux-backs.
By Taylor Made on 10.09.13 3:09pm
This is a team
That can still rep the Western Conference in the finals or could drop in 5 games in the first round. It really comes down to Westbrook’s recovery, Durant’s stamina and the growth of Ibaka and Jackson. They also need someone else to step up and eat minutes without destroying their chance to win games.
I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. Westbrook will eventually come back strong (although not his former furious self) and the team will win some playoff games. I struggle to see them getting into the WCF or Finals if everything doesn’t fall the right way. Perhaps another second round exit. If all does fall the right way then no one will want to face them in the playoffs.
I will never, and I mean never, wish for an injury to any player. With that said I’m glad the thunder are looking less like a contender while he’s out. I hope they lose 82 games this year!
okcurse of the zombies is alive. Never forget. GO SONICS! Down with okc!
By Eric E on 10.09.13 5:28pm
I can't help but wonder
what about the “chip on a shoulder factor” I know it’s real Bill Simmons-esque, but a pissed of Durant could be a real serious issue. Jackson in his “trial by fire” starts should help the bench in the long run, and Presti is not done on the trade front I would think.
Kevin you did get something seriously wrong, sir. OKC’s worst player is Kendrick Perkin’s scowl: HANDS DOWN.
By Dontae Delgado on 10.09.13 10:53pm
I expect a 30+ ppg average from Durant this year
Presti will get a deal done at some point to get the bench going.
And his scowl is his best defensive maneuver.
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.09.13 10:56pm
Outside of just standing there and being in the way...
…the scowl is his only defensive maneuver.
By MrCLM on 10.10.13 12:21am
Kendrick Perkins does not scare me
I’ll have to ask J.A. at Welcome to Loud City this or actually look it up, but I remember seeing a stat that showed that as a game went on and a season went on that Perkins’ defense got worse.
Then again, he’s in the best shape of his life and worked hard on his post moves and his touch.
By Kevin Nesgoda on 10.10.13 8:27am
Perkins May have improved his touch?
Then maybe the fans won’t have to protect their popcorn as much. Maybe the coaches told him to look for the orange round thing with a net hanging from it?
Let it fly “Popcorn” Perkins!
By Heezon-fire on 10.10.13 12:33pm
It's preseason
This is the time in which everybody is in the best shape of their life. Gained or lost 15 pounds, whichever would be better. :)
Perkins is kind of a very rich man’s Jason Collins. You know? Play nasty man defense, throw franchise centers off their game, and not do much else. You want those guys, sure. You don’t want to pay them over market value, and you certainly don’t play them Perk minutes.
If he made $2 million/year, and played 15 minutes, he’d be a favorite. Neither of those things is true, so he’s kind of a milestone around the neck.
By Killstring on 10.11.13 12:23pm
I'm not familiar with that stat
But if there is anything to it, I’d guess that it is tied to his overall health. He came in stick thin after the lockout…it was pretty jarring…
and he played well for most of the season and into the playoffs.
OKC upset the Spurs in the WCF, but at some point Perkins injured his groin and he became a huge liability against the Heat. Guys like Bosh would take him off the dribble and he could barely move at all, especially laterally.
Since then, he’s never looked right. He’s lost a lot of foot speed and agility. It’s painful to watch him try to finish a play. I swear I saw him have an uncontested dunk blocked from behind where at the beginning of the play the defender wasn’t even framed within the TV screen.
He’s just not healthy, and may never be truly healthy again, especially with the way he plays.
By J.A. Sherman on 10.14.13 12:58pm